Educational and kept me intrigued. Many tips and pointers. I look forward to reading more by this author.

First of all, I'd urge all readers to keep an open mind on what James Rickards is writing about the origins of covid, the current economic situation, and what's coming. There are comments or perspectives which may not sit well with a certain political spectrum.

On a different note, similar to his previous work. The book itself is thought-provoking. His thesis draws parallel to what the world is experiencing against major economic stress in history. The book offers insight on how you can work towards being "recession-proof". For readers who is familiar with Rickards' previous work - the theory didn't greatly deviate, so part of the book may be somewhat repetitive.

All in all, a recommended read.

THE NEW GREAT DEPRESSION

A cynic could argue that a nonfiction book has a good shot at becoming a bestseller if it has three characteristics: first, if it’s topical; second, if it paints a very dark picture of the world (because doom and gloom sell); and third if it makes predictions about the future while at the same time offering tips for how to come out ahead in those scenarios.

James Rickards’ The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World checks all those boxes and as such stands a good chance of selling like hotcakes.

I’m not entirely convinced it will stand up to rigorous scrutiny in its entirety, however.

The opening sections of the book describe where American government policy went wrong in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and Rickards does not shy away from being openly critical about the lockdowns that caused so much economic devastation in their aftermath. He writes,

“This patchwork approach to closing and then reopening the economy as a form of disease control points to the first objection—it’s unnecessary and ineffective. Lockdowns don’t work.

If someone in Michigan needs paint and can’t get it at a local Home Depot (an essential business), they can simply drive to Ohio and buy all the paint they want. If someone in New Jersey wants to buy a gun and the gun shops are closed, they can simply drive to Pennsylvania. This is not a comment on paint or guns. It’s a comment on stopping the spread of a disease. Lockdowns don’t work.”


It’s a fair point...except—as anyone from outside of America will readily point out—that doesn’t sound anything like a lockdown. The conclusion that should be drawn is not that lockdowns don’t work but that America’s lockdown didn’t work because there wasn’t much of a lockdown.

Indeed, by now the whole world has witnessed how America’s pandemic response, or really lack thereof, has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. Rickards' contetion is that this is partly because policymakers listened to the scientists too much. Contrary to this view, however, a more sober read on how things turned out is precisely the opposite: granted, mistakes were made, yet policymakers should have listened to the scientists more.

It’s also worth noting that Rickards rehashes conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID-19. His insinuations that the virus’ spread was no accident may yet be proven correct; but in the absence of evidence all he has is innuendo, no matter how plausible.

More interesting in contrast is Rickards’ characterization of the scale and scope of the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. Here he seems more in his element, with a very sober (and sobering) analysis of how difficult it will be even to get economic activity back to their pre-pandemic levels. Books like this always run the risk of overselling the doomsday scenario; The New Great Depression instead frames the situation in which the world finds itself methodically and with assumptions most readers will likely find reasonable. No doubt, his criticisms about the market mechanism and economic theory can grate (and every economist has heard these criticisms before); but if you can get beyond that, the analysis of the hole the world happens to be in right now looks very much spot on.

Finally, Rickards offers a number of suggestions on where and how to invest in such an uncertain climate. Some recommendations are boilerplate, though worth repeating (such as: cash is king, and diversification not just within but across asset classes is key). Others of questionable provenance will certainly be familiar to many readers (Rickards can safely be classified as a “gold nut”). But whether one agrees with him or not, perhaps the least that should be said about what Rickards has to offer is that by making such recommendations public they can easily be held to scrutiny after the fact—which is the only way to gauge their efficacy.

I thought I would not like this book after I read a little bit. But I was wrong and am glad I continued. Despite our very different opinions about the handling of the Covid-19 crisis, I think this book teaches a valuable lesson.

The full title is The New Great Depression: Winners and Losers in a Post-Pandemic World by James Rickards. The differing opinions do not matter here. We agree as to the economic problem. I come at this from a public health background. The author from the world of finance.

The thing about the future is we never know what is coming. We may have opinions and in some cases we are very sure we are right but we should be prepared for the unexpected.

For example, how many of us would have predicted the current COVID-19 situation a year or more ago. Many of us in the United States are doing poorly. Some very poorly and some are doing OK or even well.

Financial people are divided about how our economy will do after the pandemic is over.

Some, including this author, think it will be very bad; others predict good times ahead as the economy expands to meet pend-up demand. So it could mean stocks will tank or maybe they will soar.

The author has previously written about gold as an investment. He believes it may soar in value as we go into the post-Covid depression. Others think gold is not a very good investment. So gold may go way up in price. On the other hand, it may not.

I could go on with other examples where various experts disagree about future events but I’m sure most readers would rather not see me belabor this point.

The author also makes the point that the best defense in view of this economic uncertainty is to diversify investments. This is very good advice. And he further believes that diversification should include a much broader range of investment than most of us consider.

This is a book well worth reading.

This is a quite frightening book in which Rickards predicts a huge depression with unemployment, deflation, and bankruptcies. Helpfully, he provides guidance for investors in the last part of the book. He lists which investments are likely to rise, and why to put your money in them.

However, I found the most interesting part of the book was his description of the history of pandemics, which was filled with anecdotes from history and quotes from literature. It really brought home to me the horror of the first wave in cities like New York and what this even worse one must be like. Here, he explains why governments and experts have dealt with this virus in entirely the wrong way for the economy.

His discussion of economic theories and policies is a bit dry, although his evisceration of Modern Monetary Theory is set out simply and clearly. I tended to skim this part of the book. I will read his predictions for investments again, and study it.

I received this free ebook from NetGalley in return for an honest review.

A fairly quick read focused on COVID and how to invest based partly on historical data and similar situations, plus some data models. The research seemed decent, and while the conclusions may or may not be accurate, I won't be using it.

Thanks very much for the ARC for review!!

Good book with good reaserch. I liked different perspectives and interesting views on pandemic situation, analysis on virus and economic conditions connected to lockdown. Definitely the author has done a deep research on all the topics covered.

Mostly about playing the stock market. Could be sound advice, but nothing is a guarantee.

I received an advance reader copy in exchange for a free copy.