Thank you to the publisher, Penguin Random House, for the free advance review copy.

If you only read one nonfiction book this year, let it be this one.

I earned my Bachelor's degree in political science. Technically, my specialization within the field — if I can be said to have one — is in comparative politics, specifically the study of the comparative development of why certain countries become democracies and others dictatorships. Because of this, I've read numerous articles by prominent political scientists that claim that we are in an extended state of civil unrest — including some which say that we'll look back one day in the future and see that the Second American Civil War has already begun (link to the Wikipedia entry on this topic). I'm familiar with many of the terms, indexes, and theories that Walter references in this book, including polity scores, factionalism, and the "accelerant" of social media. But never have I read a piece that so eloquently, simply, and chillingly articulates the risk factors for and possibility of civil war in America as clearly as Walter does. Even with my interest and background in political science, I never thought I'd describe a nonfiction book about political science theory as a page-turner — until I met this book. I inhaled How Civil Wars Start in just over 12 hours.

While I could nitpick this book — for example, Walter doesn't go into the nuances and potential drawbacks of things like the polity index, or acknowledge how these scores have been challenged for not taking into account suffrage or civil rights in their rankings of democracy; the book undoubtedly also, despite its accuracy, capitalizes on readers' fears, especially with Walter's imagining of what a second U.S. civil war could look like in chapter 7 — I won't, because I have truly never seen such an accessible book for non-political scientists on such an important topic.

As much as my heart doesn't want to believe it (as I write this review, I sit on my peaceful suburban balcony listening to dogs barking and birdsong; I can't imagine any of it being replaced by machine-gun fire and electricity shutoffs), my brain would not be surprised if civil war breaks out in this country in the next ten years, or — if Trump runs and loses again — after the 2024 presidential election. At this point, I can only pray that Walter and the rest of the academics predicting civil war are entirely wrong.

...Walter notes that Americans believe their home country is too advanced, settled, and democratically resilient to fall into such chaos. She writes with an aching sense of tragedy about people she knew from Sarajevo or Baghdad who thought the same thing – before being targeted.

My review was published here: https://www.popmatters.com/civil-wars-barbara-f-walter

We are living in highly divisive times. This has been of concern for many years and it seems to bE acceleration. This work lays out history and analysis of just how our current sociology-political reality could spin into a conflict. Terrifying and enlightening at the same time.

Barbara Walter provides a cogent analysis of how civil wars have started globally and connects it to the current political landscape of the United States. Walter not only states her point of view, but argues it, working to convince skeptics that civil war is possible in America, and how to stop it. This subject is clearly an area of expertise for the author and she explains it baldly and well.

A Look at the Potential for Civil War

The book is divided into two parts: the factors influencing the start of a civil war and how to prevent the civil war from occurring. I thought the first section was well done and interesting. The second section didn’t live up to the promise of the first.

Although WWII was supposed to end armed conflict, it clearly did not. The wars have become civil wars affecting individual countries. One of the main reasons for conflict described by the author is factionalism. In this concept political ideology is replaced by ethnic and religious identity. The identification with ones own group and the perceived injustice from other groups is a tinderbox for conflict. Clearly, some of these problems are identifiable in the US today as well as in other countries.

The second half of the book was more problematic. Here the author’s political views seem to intrude on the argument. She believes that gun control, more control by the federal government as opposed to the states, and limits of free speech on social media will ameliorate the situation. From my observation, the current administration is trying these ideas, but we seem to be veering toward more violence rather than less. This may be due to a lack of understanding of the real causes of the current dissatisfaction. The white middle class, justifiably in my view, feels marginalized. Whenever a group feels put down, there is a tendency to hate those in other groups that appear to be getting more perks. Therefore, while this book has an interesting premise, I believe it is basically a political rather than a scholarly document.

I received this book from Penguin Random House for this review.

Whenever I hear someone say that civil war is coming in America, I roll my eyes. Not anymore! After reading Barbara Walter's book How Civil Wars Start, I now believe it can happen. Walter tackles this topic as a political scientist who studies civil wars in other countries. In this book she argues that America has shown signs that another civil war could happen as a result of events such as the Capitol Insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021 and the attempted kidnapping of Gov. Whitmer of Michigan. She does this by explaining the factors that led to civil war in other countries such as: democracies/autocracies becoming anocracies, the increase of factions, the rise of ethnic entrepreneurs who stoke ethnic divisions in society, and the crucial role that social media has in fomenting division. She then outlines whether civil war can happen in America again. If you think it would happen like it did in the 1860s then think again. Walter argues that civil wars in the 21st Century do not occur on a traditional battlefield, instead guerilla warfare and terrorism are used. The most scary and depressing part of the book is Chapter 7, where she describes how a civil war would look like in America. The chapter is well thought out and seems very realistic, so much so that at one point I wondered whether it was wise to include all these details, she might give some bad people ideas. But then again, these ideas are blueprints that other groups have used outside of the U.S. or that are in the battle plans of the militias inside America. The book ultimately ends on a hopeful note, that America has a chance to rectify its current predicament. She gives many policy and civic solutions that can help pull the country from the brink. My only concern is whether our leaders and fellow citizens are up to the task of rescuing the country from the dangerous elements in our society.

While Walter was shocked by the events of January 6, it was, she says, deeply familiar. She has studied civil wars and their origins, hundreds of which have happened in the last seventy-five years. Many started in ways similar to what she was seeing in the U.S. The same elements, the same warning signs she had identified in other countries are now present in the U.S.

Walter helps readers understand how civil wars start by reviewing many that have recently happened. She looks at the patterns and the changes. One change is the transition to wars fought by ethnic and religious groups rather than political entities. Rather than government soldiers, the warriors are now vigilantes and armed militias attacking government leaders. She shows how social media has been used as a catalyst and cohesive force.

We in the U.S. may have thought we were immune. Not so, says Walter. “I have seen how civil wars start, and I know the signs that people miss. And I can see those signs emerging here at a surprisingly fast rate.” (111/4020) The U.S. has entered a dangerous place. She details how, in the last five years, the situation has become precarious. The democracy score for the U.S. has dropped to its lowest point since 1801. (1837/4020) We cannot ignore what happened nor the speed at which it happened, Walter says. “...[W]e are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” (2103/4020)

There are actions that can be taken to protect our democracy, such as restoring the quality of governance. I hope our leaders will rise their responsibility to our country. I have read a number of books about recent political events in the U.S. and this one is definitely the most chilling.

I received a complimentary egalley of this book from the publisher. My comments are an independent and honest review.

HOW CIVIL WARS START by Barbara F. Walter has received quite a bit of attention lately, especially in the light of the January 6 anniversary. Walter has spent over 20 years studying civil wars, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Professor at the University of California, San Diego. She divides her book between explaining the forces that prompt civil wars and, as the subtitle says, "How to Stop Them." The recent review in The Economist argues that the first part is a "well-argued one about what caused past civil conflicts around the world," while it views the second part, especially about the likelihood of civil war in America, with more skepticism. Walter's work is certainly engaging and thought-provoking and I know several students who will be curious to read this, although the geographic and temporal span (she draws examples from experiences in Syria, Yugoslavia, South Africa, revolutions in Russia and China, etc.) may make for a challenging read. Walter describes several risk factors (factionalism, democratic decay, abundance of guns, and the fear of losing status or power) that have appeared again and again. Shifting to present day, she points to issues with technology (particularly social media) and argues that Americans may also be hampered by too little imagination – that we tend to be limited by historical images of the American Civil War and the belief that political collapse happens elsewhere. Walter's text could certainly prompt discussion in our Civics classes, just as it has in these recent editorials: "Are We Really Facing a Second Civil War?" and "Let's Not Invent a Civil War."

So this is kind of terrifying. Walter did an absolutely fantastic job convincing me that a civil war here is close (but still can be stopped) using lots of recent historical context. Her political bias is clear, but it's based on her studies of why people start killing each other, on which she is one of the world's leading experts, so it definitely makes sense. Some things I found particularly interesting:

- The US is less democratic than Canada, Costa Rica, and Chile, just to name a few.
- There are fewer democracies now than there were ten years ago.
- Presidential systems are wayyyy more destabilizing than parliamentary systems.

TL;DR

Barbara F. Walter draws on her experience and research to deliver exactly on the promise of the book’s title. How Civil Wars Start draws on historical analysis to point out the warning signs for trouble on the horizon. Highly recommended.

Disclaimer: The publisher provided a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review. Any and all opinions that follow are mine alone.

Review: How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter

Political science is a field that it seems like most people are engaged with poorly nowadays. We, average citizens, need to be involved in our political system, but most of us – including me – don’t engage in the rigorous studies that academic political scientists due. That doesn’t mean we can’t see the same trends, but our explanations tend to be more instinctual than fact based. This is why we need the field of political science. We need people to study the cause and effects of politics, and we need people to study this field with a rigorous methodology. Pundits, journalists, and opinion show hosts operate with an agenda then, sometimes, search for data to fit their opinions. Political scientists let the data shape their thoughts. The difference is important, especially when looking at trends with an eye towards identifying – and stopping – potential conflicts. Barbara F. Walter shows us how countries slide towards civil war in her aptly titled book, How Civil Wars Start. Walter analyzes past civil wars from around the world with an eye towards what caused them, and like all of life, it’s a complex subject. There’s no one event that triggers a civil war, and there’s no one solution to avoiding a civil war either. Walter’s book is a terrifying yet excellent look into societal trends that lead to tragedy. This is a book that politicians and pundits on both sides of the aisle should be studying.

Walter opens How Civil Wars Start by describing the lead up to plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan in 2020. This seems like an apt place to start determining whether a civil war is on the horizon for the United States. Walter goes on to list her background and experiences in studying civil wars. Her experience is extensive, which I appreciate. Part of her work has been interviewing survivors of civil wars to understand their experience; so, she peppers the book with conversations. This helps balance explanations of theory, keeping the non-political science reader engaged. Chapter one of the book deals with anocracy. This is the political state of a nation between democracy and autocracy. Walter’s writing here is both understandable to the layperson like me but also deep enough for those in the field. I found the anocracy chapter to be interesting and detailed. The rest of the book relies on this first chapter because a lot of the indicators for conflict happen in this transitional state from autocracy to democracy.

Walter spends six chapters explaining the indicators and warning signs for civil war. Then, she analyzes how close the U.S. actually is. I found this chapter fascinating and frightening. Walter breaks down the various rising threats to the U.S. in clear prose. But she is clear that she doesn’t think we, the nation, are on the brink of civil war yet. A few wrong decisions could lead us there easily, though. The final chapter is how to avoid it. This chapter is worth the price of the book alone. It should be required reading for everyone who goes into government

Both Left and Right

Throughout How Civil Wars Start Walter identifies a number of right wing, extremist groups that are more likely to start a civil war. Based on my casual conservative friends wondering about civil war on Facebook, I think her analysis is correct. However, the Right will simply call her a lib or socialist in order to ignore her findings. But the important part of her book is that it takes two sides to fight a civil war. Her analysis of the fall and decline of Yugoslavia shows how one side being taken over by a populist demagogue who engages in racial propaganda doesn’t necessarily mean civil war. It’s when the other side reacts with similar measures that precede a slide into conflict. While she correctly identifies extremist right wing groups as pushing the rhetoric, I think she could look more at how the Left has ignored the non-urban areas of the country. Maybe that’s beyond the scope of this book. But she does note that extremist left wing groups might join with extremist right wing groups at the start. Most conservatives will view this book through their victim complex despite the fact that she uses evidence based reasoning. I can already hear the “what-about’s” that will be used to ignore the warnings in this book. However, the piece that, to me, correctly indicates it will be right wing extremists instead of left is that those on the right perceive themselves as losing power. Whereas the moderate left sees their constituents gaining power. A clear indicator of this is gerrymandering and the removal of competitive elections. Both the right and the left are guilty of gerrymandering. This is surely one way to escalate the feeling of helplessness or that our votes don’t matter. Another is all the voting restriction laws that Republicans around the nation are putting into place. They know they’re an unpopular minority, and they know that demographic growth isn’t on their side. So, instead of losing power, they’re doing all they can to cement themselves and to remove public choice. The supposed party of ‘life’ want to make it illegal to give someone food or drink in the long voting lines that they created.

Social Media

It should come as no surprise that social media leads to radicalization. Social media has become a tool of terrorists worldwide, and it’s facilitating homegrown terrorism here in the U.S. Militia groups are able to recruit but also to collaborate with other groups. (See January 6th). Walter’s discussion of how social media drives this process is fascinating. She took something that I knew in general and filled in the specifics. Walter clarifies what drives social media companies, and she details how extremists and states use social media to divide and recruit.

Her analysis of how social media companies profit off creating extremists is frightening. It makes sense, and I wish social media executives cared about protecting democracy. Instead, they’re profiting off its decline.

Identity Politics

In How Civil Wars Start, Walter discusses identity politics. But I don’t think she focused on how the Left’s identity politics play into this. Her focus was the so-called sons of the soil groups. In the U.S. this would be rural, middle and upper class, white people who are losing power to demographic trends. So, how does the Lefts increased focus on identity politics affect this group? I’d love to see a study of this. Because I think their current focus on their own Right identity politics isn’t a backlash as much as an excuse to say things they normally wouldn’t.

Does the Left’s identity politics up the temperature on the Civil War? Unfortunately, we don’t get that analysis in this book. I would be very interested in Walter’s thoughts on this topic. She’s written such a nuanced and throughtfully researched book that I’d trust her to handle the topic delicately.

Civil War in the U.S.?

While Walter doesn’t believe the U.S. is headed towards a Civil War, I’m not so optimistic. Partially because of lurking on my conservative friends Facebook pages, I do believe the U.S. is headed towards a Civil War. At the end of her book, Walter gives strategies for avoiding Civil War. However, I don’t see the U.S. implementing these strategies any time soon. For example, she suggests strengthening the institution of voting by making it easier and by involving more people. She also suggest reforming campaign finance. However, both of these suggestions are against the interests of the Republican party. They are enacting laws to restrict voting as much as they can despite all evidence that the U.S. has secure elections. In addition, the Right continues to push disinformation about elections that will only get worse.

But it takes two to dance. And I see the moderate Left adopting some of the same strategies that pushed the Right towards extremists. For example, the calls to use political power to jail opponents is bad right now. Hearing all the calls for AG Garland to indict Trump over something is not conducive to making the Right believe the department of Justice is non-partisan. Process cannot be skipped, and just because ‘we’ are in power doesn’t mean we get to skip process in a just society. No matter who the ‘we’ is. The rise of Leftist political grifters on social media decrying that the end is near and that Biden must act is as bad an indicator as Right wing talk radio. If the Left continues to escalate their political corched earth tactics that mimic the Right, what else can the outcome be?

Conclusion

Barbara F. Walter’s How Civil Wars Start is an important work for political junkies and politicians. It’s a frank analysis of what puts civil peace in jeopardy, and Walter’s timely analysis is needed to hopefully cool rhetoric on both sides of the aisle.

How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter is available from Crown Publishing on January 11th, 2022.

A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct them
As someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years, I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars, hopefully to allay my unease about my country today (I wish!) or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war.
The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in countries where civil wars arise, with an emphasis on the twentieth century. This is an excellent exposition, especially the discussion of communist or communist-leaning countries during the Cold War and the differences among them, nuances that were not brought out by the news during that period. Central to this section of the book is the concept of anocracies, which “are neither full autocracies nor democracies but something in between”. The author uses the Polity Score, a measure that employs thirty-eight variables to measure how democratic or autocratic a country is at any given time on a 21-point scale from -10 to +10. Anocracies score between -5 and +5. It was rather shocking to find that the US does not rank as high as I believe most Americans would expect. Not surprisingly, anocracies are the most fertile grounds for civil uprising.
A particular factor present when civil wars occur is factionalism, in which political parties break down along ethnic or religious identity rather than political ideology. As many as 75 percent of the civil wars since the end of the Cold War were brought about by such factions.
Walter also points out how civil unrest in the twentieth century differed from the past, especially the role of social media.
After this excellent, albeit disturbing, presentation of the factors present during civil unrest, the second half of the book opens with the chapter “How Close Are We?”. Pretty close, Walter argues, quite convincingly.
She goes on to make recommendations on how we can prevent it from happening here. This part of the book I found less satisfactory, partly because if the answers were easy there would likely not be so many civil wars but especially because her political views intrude excessively. For example, she calls for more gun control, more federal involvement instead of state control over many items, and limits on free speech in social media. There is little or no suggestion to look at what legitimate concerns might exist that extremists can tap into if the authorities pay no attention to them.
So the book ended on a down note for me, but the first half is definitely worth your attention. If we wake up to the danger and work together despite our political leanings, religion, or ethnicity, we CAN preserve democracy and, as Walter says “live up to our founding motto---E Pluribus Unum---…[and] become one.”
I received an advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and the publisher.

For whatever reason, I wasn't a fan of this text or author's style. The introduction set up a premise that I was intrigued by but the execution, throughout the rest of the book, was subpar. You're taken through a variety of Civil Wars mostly from the ground up or through the eyes of everyday people, which is the point, but it's limiting in that each Civil War that's discussed is in a distinctly different geographical location, undertaken by a different society with different cultural ideals, aspirations, lived experiences, etc., which makes it harder to extrapolate anything and then superimpose it on the US. Undoubtedly there are parallels that can be made but it almost seems a pointless exercise.

I have mixed feelings about this book. On the one hand, it addresses a very real concern in our nation and presents evidence from other 20th century civil war evolutions from around the globe. On the other hand, it seems very directed against right-wing 'extremists' (pretty much defined as anyone who speaks out against the current leftist regime) and includes several logical fallacies linking the problems to this group. I also feel that, rather than help to prevent civil war (as the book description says), it's almost meant to fan the flames in that passive-aggressive method...