Member Reviews

I switched my major in college from biology to chemistry specifically to avoid taking additional statistics courses. I excelled in all upper division math classes, but statistics was too boring to survive. Of all the college courses, it is the most applicable to life. Like learning to balance a budget or get signatures from 6 professors when 4 of them are on sabbatical so you can graduate on time, having an innate grasp on statistics would set you on a path of a lifetime of success - if somewhat boring success.
All this is to say, I found this book the same as those college courses. Tedious to the point of absurdity. Yes, it's true I don't understand statistic. Yes, you can say 1 out of 10 or 10% and my brain knows it's the same thing but the emotions are different if we're talking about the lottery odds or cancer risks. The book tries hard to make you understand that these are the same stats with repetitive and occasional dull stories about taxes. Imagine behavioral economics before the "behavioral" part - before Freakonomics. It's just a lot of statistical analysis geeks hanging around in a convention hall talking spreadsheets and error bars.
This is a good book for someone that already is into statistics or someone who might want a career in actuarial sciences. For the "rest of us," I'll wait for a decent podcast about it and keep messing up statistics every time I hear the news.

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Full disclosure: I'm not a math person whatsoever, but I still found Spiegelhalter's book to be engaging. It takes an in-depth look at probability: what it means, what it doesn't mean, but more importantly it's relation to our experience of it vis a vis encounters with uncertainty. The chapters with more complex calculations were mostly lost on me though I get the feeling that the mathematically inclined would find it a delicious visualization of the equations underpinning Spiegelhalter's writing. He talks about theorists and theories that inform probability and subsequent philosophical reckonings with objectivity-subjectivity. For example, how can probability be an objective (i.e. naturally occurring aspect of the known world), when at a quantum physics level it is a subjective quantification? I appreciated this kind of questioning of the field of probability itself. It had a tempering effect on the sense that probability is a fixed state such as a law of the universe, rather than an experience that we've made some mathematical sense of. He also talks about coincidences and for the social scientists among us, that contains some great information where it meets with concepts of random sample sizes and outcomes (where coincidence is the hypothesized outcome).

The best books leave us with more questions than answers (at least for quite a few genres of non-fiction). While reading a found myself wondering about what probability will look like in the coming eras of generative AI whose role is largely data aggregation and subsequent modeling that is a form of probability. If it doesn't quite exist at that mathematical quantum level, what can we make of generative AI and other technological injectures into its fields? Also, generally speaking, I was left with a reverence and much awe for mathematicians whose career is dancing through these incredibly dense equations and philosophical possibilities. It certainly is an art and I didn't expect to enjoy The Art of Uncertainty as much as I did.

The book is great for fans of Malcolm Gladwell-style writing, computer science interests, and tangential industries that rely on probability tipped in its favour: marketing, management, artificial intelligence, a/b testing for websites, sales, and more.

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